What Would an Extension for Masahiro Tanaka Look Like?

Given the bleak long-term outlook of the New York Yankees rotation, it may make sense for them to discuss an extension with ace Masahiro Tanaka this winter.

The opt-out clause in Masahiro Tanaka’s contract that will allow him to hit the free agent market following the 2017 season is rightfully terrifying for many Yankees fans. In a season of turmoil and transition, the New York Yankees’ 27-year-old ace has been the only constant.

The team has been 22-7 with Tanaka on the mound this season. Remove him from the equation, and the Yankees are probably the worst team in the American League this season. He’s the clear team MVP and could even be the favorite for AL Cy Young if he keeps up this recent hot streak.

With 29 starts and 186.2 innings under his belt, Tanaka seems poised to hit the 30 start and 200 IP mark for the first time in his MLB career. The kid gloves seem to be off in the team’s handling of Tanaka at this point. They regularly allow him to reach 7-8 innings and surpass 100 pitches in his starts.

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Given his performance and the team’s needs, it seems like a no-brainer that the Yankees should reach out to Masahiro Tanaka this winter about a possible extension.

Of course, the elephant in the room of those talks would be the partial tear in Tanaka’s right elbow. It’s not going anywhere, and it all but guarantees that the righty will require TJ surgery at some point. Without the elbow issue, Tanaka would be a lock to top the $200 million mark.

Tanaka will still be just 28 when he finishes up the 2017 season. David Price and Max Scherzer may have had longer resumes when they landed their current $200-plus million deals, but they had also already celebrated their 30th birthdays. 

Maybe a better comparable is the seven year $175 million extension the Washington Nationals gave Stephen Strasburg this spring. Strasburg is 28 and is no stranger to elbow issues. The key difference may be that Strasburg already had his TJ procedure and missed his time. Of course, he is probably at increased risk having had the surgery once.

Would Tanaka be able to land a seven year deal if he were a free agent this offseason? It’s unlikely, but not inconceivable given the inflated market for starting pitching. Proven front-of-the-rotation arms on the right side of 30 don’t hit the open market very often these days, generally because their clubs have locked them up early.

If Tanaka doesn’t opt out, he has three years and $67 remaining on contract, so that would be the starting point of any talks. If the Yankees were to tack on two years and $60 million to the existing deal, that would bring the total value to five years and $127 million. That feels like something both sides might consider this winter.

Another possibility is that New York could go with a shorter term deal but sweeten the average annual value. If the team tore up his current contract this offseason, would Tanaka consider a four year $120 million contract that ran from 2017-2020? That would allow the pitcher to hit the market again following his age 31 season and possible land a second big pay day.

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There have been zero rumblings on an extension for Tanaka from either side at this point, which is surprising for a player of his stature. Hopefully this is one of the first items on GM Brian Cashman’s to-do list when the season ends.