Yankees Fans: Brace Yourselves for Tanaka Opting Out

Yankees fans have to know that with every quality start that Masahiro Tanaka racks up, the likelihood of him opting out of his current contract after 2017, becomes more of a reality.

Monday afternoon’s contest against the Toronto Blue Jays started off ominously enough, with a leadoff double by Devon Travis and a run-scoring single by Jose Bautista. And though Tanaka would scatter seven hits and four walks over 6.1 innings pitched, his defense aided him in only allowing 2 earned runs, while striking out four fearsome Blue Jays’ hitters.

While it certainly wasn’t Tanaka’s most spectacular performance to date, over the span of his last six contests, Tanaka has won five of six, only pitching less than six innings once, and that was in last week’s one-hour rain delay in Kansas City.

In the month of August alone, Tanaka was 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 0.2 BB/9. Add that to what we witnessed from him on Labor Day, and Tanaka now sits at 12-4, with a 3.11 ERA, and 150 strikeouts on the season.

While these numbers are superb on their own, Tanaka ranks in the top 10 in the AL in innings pitched, ERA, WHIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio. He also put together his 17th quality start of 2016, as the Yankees have now won 13 of his past 15 starts.

Posting similar numbers to his fantastic rookie season of 2014, when he finished the year at 13-5,  a 2.77 ERA, and 9.3 K/9, Tanaka is the fifth pitcher in Yankees history to win at least 12 games in each of his first three Major League seasons. His 37-16 career record features the highest winning percentage among active pitchers with at least 50 decisions.

When presenting the above evidence, it’s hard to believe at times that the 27-year-old Japanese import can go underappreciated. Hey, I’ll admit, I’m guilty of this.

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It’s way easier to point out the negatives in Tanaka’s game, how he tends to start most games with a flat hittable splitter, the ticking time bomb that is his elbow, and that massive 7-years, $155 million contract given to a guy that Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman–at the time of signing, called a third starter at best.

But after almost three full seasons in the Bronx, Tanaka’s the only consistent pitcher on a staff that is held together by duct tape and bubble gum. Maybe he isn’t a No. 1 starter per say, but on this Yankees staff, he’s the best they’ve got.

Though the Yankees may not be able to retain him after the 2017 season. That’s when Tanaka and his representatives can opt out from the remaining 3-years, $67 million to test the free agent waters, and more than likely double both the amount of years and millions he’s already got coming to him.

How much money would it cost to keep Tanaka in pinstripes? That’s a debate best saved till next season. Stats and health will dictate, but I’d venture to say 5-years, $90 million would be a starting point.

If, and that’s a big if, Tanaka’s elbow stays intact, opting out of his guaranteed deal is simply a smart business move. He’ll still be under 30 years of age, and there will undoubtedly be a slew of teams that would try to outbid the Yankees for his services, especially ones on the west coast, that love to employ ball players originally from the Pacific.

I’d put both Los Angeles clubs at the top of the list for starters; especially the Angels since they’ve been hit with a barrage of crippling injuries to their young staff.

Perhaps, owner Arte Moreno wouldn’t want to invest in a pitcher with a well-known impingement, but if he doesn’t, you can bet the Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants or even the Toronto Blue Jays would (each of these cities have huge Asian-American populations).

As for the Yankees, adding a starting pitcher or two, to take the pressure off Tanaka would go a mile and a day. The added pressure to a shooters psyche–that every start is a must win situation–much like today was, cannot be something that continues into 2017.

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Otherwise, Tanaka may decide that pitching in New York, with the pressure of an entire franchise pulling on that balky elbow, is too much to handle. Reinforcements are needed, and they’re needed soon. I’d hate to see Tanaka continue to shine in another uniform.