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Did the Yankees Really Miss Out on Lucas Giolito?

By Evan Halpine-Berger

Jul 7, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (44) pitches against the New York Mets during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 7, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (44) pitches against the New York Mets during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Washington Nationals were reportedly willing to trade the top pitching prospect in baseball, Lucas Giolito, straight up for Andrew Miller. Did the Yankees miss out on the real prize at the trade deadline?

It’s hard to fault the job New York Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman did at this year’s trade deadline. With three trades, he transformed his middle-of-the-pack farm system into the class of baseball.

Cashman acquired five players who have appeared on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects list in the past year (although two, Dillon Tate and Billy McKinney have fallen off for the moment). The Yankees GM received a much larger haul than expected in two of the three major deals he pulled off.

The only return that could have raised some eyebrows was what he got for Andrew Miller, and that is mostly just because the reported asking price from the Yankees was sky-high. Arguably, Cashman ended up with a very similar group of prospects for two and a half years of Andrew Miller as he got for two and a half months of Aroldis Chapman. 

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By MLB Pipeline’s estimation, the main pieces in the Chapman and Miller trades, Gleyber Torres (24th) and Clint Frazier (22nd) have roughly equivalent value as prospects.

The second piece in the Miller deal, Justus Sheffield (93rd) has more value than the struggling Billy McKinney, who is the second name the Yankees got for Chapman, but that is probably balanced out by the Cubs inclusion of Adam Warren, who is an established major league player and easily trumps the addition of Ben Heller in the Miller trade.

The throw-in fourth pieces Rashad Crawford and J.P. Feyereisen cancel each other out, leaving the return for Chapman and Miller more or less equivalent. That doesn’t mean the return for Miller was bad, just maybe not as much as some expected given the huge haul for Chapman.

Maybe the strangest factor in the Andrew Miller trade saga were the rumors that the Yankees may have turned down the Washington Nationals offer of the best pitching prospect in baseball Lucas Giolito straight up for Miller.

Although Jon Morosi is generally a reputable source of front office gossip, there is always the possibility that this offer was never made or not even accurate. The Nats had previously refused to discuss any of their top prospects in negotiations for Aroldis Chapman, which is why the Yankees ultimately turned to the Cubs.

However, it is conceivable that having missed out on Chapman, Washington might be willing to relent on this stance for Miller. He wasn’t a rental and would be willing to accept an eighth inning role under incumbent closer Jonathan Papelbon, defusing any potential controversy.

While Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball didn’t confirm the Nationals willingness to offer Giolito, he did report that the Yankees would not be willing to accept such an offer. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed this.

While this may have been posturing by the Yankees in an attempt to get a bigger return, it seems astounding that they would not jump all over an offer of Lucas Giolito for a reliever. If it were ever on the table, Brian Cashman was crazy to ever let the Nationals walk away.

Ultimately Washington landed a very similar late-inning reliever in Mark Melancon from the Pirates for two middling young arms. It was probably the better move for them because they shored up their bullpen for their playoff run this year without sacrificing they future. Giolito would have been a very steep price to pay for help in the pen.

From the Yankees perspective, there are three possibilities as to what happened. One, the offer of Giolito for Miller was never made, so Cashman never got the chance to make a decision either way.

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Two, the Yankees saw something they didn’t like in Giolito. He did get roughed up in his first few MLB appearances, which team officials were undoubtedly on hand for given the amount they were reportedly scouting Nationals players. He also hadn’t been as dominant in the minors this year as one would expect given his front-of-the rotation stuff. It’s certainly possible they thought he was being overrated, which is why Washington was willing to move him.

Finally, Brian Cashman may have truly preferred the Indians package. New York could have focused on adding quantity rather than quality at the trade deadline. Prospects fail constantly, especially young pitchers. Giolito is one sore elbow away from never being the same again.

One of the most impressive aspects of the Yankees trade deadline approach is the sheer number of prospects they acquired. Four players for Chapman, four for Miller, three for Carlos Beltran, and even two for Ivan Nova. A quarter of the Yankees current top 20 prospects according to MLB Pipeline  were acquired in the week before the deadline.

All three options seem like valid possibilities as to why Lucas Giolito didn’t end up in pinstripes. It would have been very exciting to see a rotation fronted by Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, and Giolito over the next few years, but given all Brian Cashman’s recent successes, it’s probably best to defer to him and his team at this point.

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