Projecting the 2017 New York Yankees Starting Lineup

The New York Yankees lineup will look drastically different in 2017, as the team’s wave of prospects in the upper-minors establish themselves as regulars.

With all the key contributors returning from the second most productive offense in the league last season (their 764 runs scored was behind only the mighty Blue Jays), it was reasonable to expect an above average offense from the 2016 Yankees at the very least.

Some regression was to be expected given the advanced age of many in the team’s lineup, but nobody could have predicted just how quickly the core of this current Yankees club would collapse.

That said, even if all reasonable people have already given up on the Yankees 2016 chances, there is enough intriguing talent remaining in the organization for fans to turn a hopeful eye towards next year.

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With several lineup spots expected to open up this winter and a number of top prospects on the verge of cracking the majors, now seems like an interesting time to start speculating about the 2017 lineup.

Here’s a position by position look at the possible candidates:

Catcher

The Favorite: Brian McCann
Other Possibilities: Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine, Kyle Higashioka, Matt Wieters

McCann seems like a longshot to get traded at the deadline or this winter, especially since he’s the only proven middle of the order hitter the Yankees have under contract for next season. If they do deal McCann, they could either hand the job to Sanchez or sign Wieters as a stop gap to split time until the Kraken is ready.

First Base

The Favorite: Greg Bird
Other Possibilities: Mark Teixeira, Rob Refsnyder, Joey Gallo, Wil Myers, Edwin Encarnacion, Tyler Austin

This seemed much more obvious before the shoulder surgery that ended Bird’s season. How confident are the Yankees that the Bird Man will be ready to go next year? Refsnyder has proven himself a nice safety net and could even be a platoon partner to begin 2017.

Austin continues to rake in Triple-A and could make an interesting dark horse option if he tears it up in big league camp next year and Bird falters.

Second Base

The Favorite: Starlin Castro
Other Possibilities: Rob Refsnyder, Neil Walker

As bad as he’s been this season, Castro’s job is probably safe given his salary commitment over the next few years. The team gave up a valuable asset in Adam Warren to acquire him, and he has had strong seasons in the past. The ability is there, so he’s presumably got a pretty long leash.  Refsnyder could be a threat since the team has no obvious regular role for him, and he has arguably outplayed Starlin in 2016.

Shortstop

The Favorite: Didi Gregorius
Other Possibilities: ?

Maybe the safest player on the Yankees. Looks like a building block and is overdue to be moved up near the top of the lineup. No internal competition for a year or two when Tyler Wade and Jorge Mateo make their push.

Third Base

The Favorite: Chase Headley
Other Possibilities: Rob Refsnyder, Martin Prado

Headley has been quietly solid since a disaster April. He’s hitting .279/.342/.443 (110 wRC+) since May 1st and his glove work has recovered to its pre-yips level of quality. Believe it or not, Headley was the team’s last major free agent commitment. The $26 million owed to him the next two seasons is reasonable enough that Headley could be moved, but the Yankees don’t really have anyone else behind him.

Refsnyder is never going to be even passable at the hot corner as an everyday option. Prado had a nice run in pinstripes, but is underwhelming as the best third base option on the free agent market next year. Don’t love Headley, but no clear upgrades available.

Leftfield

The Favorite: Brett Gardner
Other Possibilities: Aaron Hicks, Ben Gamel, Mason Williams, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Saunders

Gardner was shopped all winter and you get the feeling it’s just a matter of time before he’s shipped out. The Yankees have too many MLB ready young outfielders, and Gardy simply hasn’t done enough to save his job this year. He’s the favorite by default, but I would bet on the field for 2017. Hicks is probably first in line, but Gamel and Williams could leapfrog him with a hot month or two.

Centerfield

The Favorite: Jacoby Ellsbury
Other Possibilities: Not going to happen.

Ellsbury will be in centerfield and batting leadoff well into his 40’s if manager Joe Girardi has anything to say about it.

Rightfield

The Favorite: Aaron Judge
Other Possibilities: Hicks, Gamel, Williams, Carlos Beltran!

Beltran has carried the offense this year, but there has been very little talk of bringing the 39-year-old back. Probably better to go out on top anyway. Maybe a 1% chance he gets a qualifying offer to DH next year if Yankees panic about playing too many rookies?

Judge is the heir apparent. He’s currently on the DL with a knee injury, although it’s not expected to be a long-term issue. The team’s number two prospect been the hottest minor league player in the system this year. With his huge frame and strikeout issues, there are definitely reasons to worry about his ability to make the jump, but at 24, he looks as ready as he’ll ever be.

Designated Hitter

The Favorite: Alex Rodriguez (I guess?)
Other Possibilities: Rotating Spot, Beltran, Sanchez, Judge, McCann, Bird, Encarnacion, Kyle Schwarber, Pedro Alvarez, David Ortiz (kidding).

A-Rod is under contract for $21 million for next year, so despite his struggles, he may be the guy for one more year. A 41-year-old pinch hitter who can’t hit right-handed pitching is not the most useful guy on the bench, so if the Yankees aren’t going to eat the remaining money on his deal, it may make sense to just cross their fingers and hope for one more miraculous productive season.

The Yankees could use Bird, Beltran, or impending free agent slugger Alvarez as the strong side of a platoon if they don’t want to give up on Alex entirely. Sanchez and McCann also seem like a natural pairing to swap between catcher and DH duties to keep both fresh. Perhaps most likely, the team could keep the spot open to rotate their remaining geriatrics through, providing everyone with regular half-days off.

Best Guess for the July 2017 Yankees Lineup

Jacoby Ellsbury- CF
Didi Gregorius- SS
Greg Bird- 1B
Gary Sanchez- DH/C
Brian McCann- C/DH
Aaron Judge- RF
Chase Headley- 3B
Starlin Castro- 2B
Aaron Hicks/Ben Gamel- LF

Next: Yankees Top Five Priorities at the Trade Deadline

This lineup assumes GM Brian Cashman sticks to his guns at the trade deadline and this offseason. If the Yankees once again stay away from veteran free agents and finally play the kids, the offense could look something like this. How successful that would be next season is an open question. Playing youngsters often requires considerable patience, which Yankees fans as a whole aren’t known for.