Ivan Nova Could Pitch Himself Out of the Yanks’ Price Range

One of the most notable aspects of the 2015-2016 offseason was the massive stacks of cash thrown at mediocre starting pitchers. Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy, and Jeff Samardzija all landed five year commitments worth between $70 and $90 million despite being below average starters by most metrics in 2015. Veteran journeyman Mike Pelfrey, Marco Estrada, and J.A. Happ all managed to secure multi-year contracts. No commodity in baseball has been more in demand than a pitcher who has proven they can handle a starting job.

That is why CC Sabathia’s recent groin strain may have huge financial implications for Ivan Nova. Monday will be Nova’s first start of the season, and with Sabathia expected to miss at least two weeks, he will have an extended opportunity to show he belongs in the Yankee rotation. With Luis Severino and Michael Pineda getting lit up regularly in the early going, there is always the chance Nova could keep his spot even after CC returns if he pitches well.

If Nova can reestablish himself as the solid mid-rotation presence he was at times earlier in his career, it would not only be a major boost for the struggling 2016 Yankees, but could earn him a multi-year deal following the season. Happ, Pelfrey, and Estrada landed their current contracts largely on the strength of one good season. Still just 29, Nova is several years younger than that group with a far more impressive resume.

Of course, if he does put together 20-25 solid starts, that would likely spell the end of his tenure with New York. The team’s decision makers have made it clear they will avoid significant free agent commitments in the near future in their efforts to get under the luxury tax threshold, preferring to add younger talent via trade. Given the inconsistency of Nova’s performance with the Yankees, it is doubtful they would be willing to pay a premium for him based on a few months of pitching well. Ironically, the only way a reunion seems possible is if Nova pitches badly this year, and New York is able to retain him on a modest one year contract. Even then, it’s likely they’d be out bid by other clubs.

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Nova’s work in the early going has not been particularly encouraging, with a 5.14 ERA and only 4.5 K/9 in only 14 innings as the team’s long reliever. He is limiting walks and home runs after struggling with both of those as a starter in 2015. Time will tell whether he is able to take advantage of this opportunity.