Looking Ahead to the Yankees’ 2016 Trade Deadline Strategy
Although the Yankees currently find themselves in the cellar of the AL East, they remain three games out of the division lead and 2.5 out of the wild card. Even in the worst case scenario this season, the Yankees should stay within a stone’s throw of a playoff spot for much of the year given the parity in the American League.
The AL teams with the five worst records coming into Thursday, Houston, Minnesota, New York, Toronto and Detroit were seen as strong contenders before the season, and a month’s worth of games shouldn’t change that. That will present a unique challenge when the trade deadline arrives. Finding teams willing to sell has already been difficult since the league implemented the second wild card. This year it’s possible that every AL team will still consider themselves a contender by July.
Regardless of where the Yankees are in the standings at that point, it may be more accurate to think of them as a rebuilding team rather than a contender. In 2015, the Yankees were a clear contender with obvious needs and a number of attractive prospect chips to deal.
The only addition they made was underachieving bench option Dustin Ackley. This was despite the fact that the Blue Jays, the team chasing them in the standings, turned themselves into the best team in baseball in a matter of days by adding David Price, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Revere, Mark Lowe and LaTroy Hawkins to an already talented group.
Even after their early exit from the postseason, Brian Cashman and Co. showed uncharacteristic restraint. Every move they made was to improve the long term health of the team (with the exception of the Aroldis Chapman trade. He was too much of a bargain to pass up).
There is no reason to think that the team’s brass will deviate from their plan at this point and splurge on a veteran addition. That doesn’t mean that Cashman is going to sit out the deadline, however. Based on their recent history, any additions they make will have to meet one or more of the following five criteria:
1. Cheap- Hal Steinbrenner has been very vocal in the past few years about his desire to get under the luxury tax threshold. The Yankees’ payroll has remained stagnant relative to the rest of the league in recent years, and Hal has made it clear he isn’t comfortable increasing the budget far beyond where it is. That means no taking on bad contracts or even big commitments of any kind. That rules out a number of potentially available trade options like James Shields, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun and Carlos Gonzalez.
2. Young– New York has made a concerted effort to get younger and more athletic over the past year. Recent acquisitions Didi Gregorius, Nathan Eovaldi, Dustin Ackley, Starlin Castro, and Aaron Hicks are all just entering their prime years. Any player they target will likely be on the right side of 30. Defensive skill or a blazing fastball earn bonus points.
3. Controllable– The Yankees seem to be building to contend during 2017-2020 or so, meaning that the players they acquire should ideally be under long term control. Brian Cashman specifically identified controllable starting pitching as his priority this winter. Of the team’s current starters, only Luis Severino is controlled beyond 2017.
Beyond James Kaprielian, the team is short on impact starting pitching prospects, so adding starting pitching depth for 2016 and the future seems a likely focus this July. The following table lsits some of the young controllable starters on the five team’s most likely to be seller’s this July according to FanGraph’s projections. Most are underwhelming back-end of the rotation types, but what the Yankees really need at this point are innings and stability. All are projected to be worth at least a win or two above replacement in 2016 by ZiPS.
Name | Age | Arbitration Eligible | Free Agency | ZiPS 2016 WAR | ZiPS 2016 FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Julio Teheran | 25 | N/A | 2020 | 1.7 | 3.96 |
Matt Wisler | 23 | 2019 | 2022 | 0.7 | 4.46 |
Jerad Eickhoff | 25 | 2019 | 2022 | 1.2 | 4.49 |
Aaron Nola | 25 | 2019 | 2022 | 2.0 | 3.84 |
Vincent Velasquez | 23 | 2019 | 2022 | 1.4 | 3.43 |
Wily Peralta | 26 | 2017 | 2019 | 0.9 | 4.58 |
Jimmy Nelson | 26 | 2018 | 2021 | 2.0 | 4.13 |
Chase Anderson | 28 | 2018 | 2021 | 1.5 | 4.18 |
Taylor Jungmann | 26 | 2019 | 2022 | 1.7 | 3.99 |
Tyson Ross | 29 | N/A | 2018 | 2.9 | 3.19 |
Drew Pomeranz | 27 | N/A | 2019 | 1.2 | 3.56 |
Colin Rea | 25 | 2019 | 2022 | 1.1 | 4.22 |
Raisel Iglesias | 26 | 2021 | 2022 | 1.8 | 3.76 |
Brandon Finnegan | 23 | 2019 | 2022 | 0.5 | 4.30 |
Anthony DeSclafani | 26 | 2018 | 2021 | 1.5 | 4.10 |
4. Undervalued– The number of former top prospects and first round draft picks the team has brought in the past year can’t be a coincidence. Many had fallen out of favor with their teams because of underperformance (Ackley, Eovaldi) or were blocked by better options (Gregorius, Hicks, Castro). Even minor pickups like Chris Parmelee and Jared Mitchell have followed this pattern. Bringing in as much talent as possible is always smart, and Cashman has done a great job of finding value while shopping in the bargain bin in recent years.
5. A Member of the 2009 Championship Team– Two of New York’s most recent acquisitions have been Nick Swisher and Phil Coke, both members of the organization’s last championship squad. Clearly Cashman has been feeling a little nostalgic. Melky Cabrera, Joba Chamberlain, and Ramiro Pena are all still active options if the Yankees are trying to recapture some of that 2009 magic.
Whatever additions the team makes, don’t expect the typical top prospects for veteran rental deal. More likely is an old fashioned need-for-need trade. The Yankees’ areas of depth are currently their outfield and bullpen. Carlos Beltran, Brett Gardner, Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, Ben Gamel, and Dustin Fowler all have some trade value.
The Yankees shopped Andrew Miller all winter and reportedly were willing to listen on Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman as well. It would not be a huge surprise if any of their Big Three relievers were swapped out for a young starter. A contender looking for a bat or bullpen help may even make sense as a trade partner.
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