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Yankees’ 2015 ZiPS Projections

By Brendan Fitzgerald

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As Spring training approaches fans are eager to gauge how players will perform over the course of the season in various metrics. Projection systems provide fans an objective evaluation that lacks inherent bias when humans evaluate a player. These models don’t have feelings.

Dan Szymborski released his annual ZiPS projections for the Yankees recently, which gives us an idea of what to expect from each player heading into 2015. Szymborski cautions not to just add up the WAR totals for the players to get a team WAR. This is solely to look at individual player projections. He also notes that ZiPS does not make adjustments for predicted playing time so Slade Heathcott and even Derek Jeter get a projection

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Position Players: Szymborski notes that Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Carlos Beltran will make more money than they are worth. This is not really a surprise. It’s due to both health risk and performance risk. On the flip side, Szymborski says that the Chase Headley deal (4/52) was a relative bargain due to his skill-set being undervalued in the market: high OBP, mid-range SLG, above average defensive third baseman.

From a very birds-eye view, ZiPS projects the Yankees to be above average in leftfield, centerfield, third base, and catcher. Shortstop is projected about average while rightfield, second base, third base, and designated hitter are just above or at replacement level. Again, knowing the players at all of these positions (including age, injury risk, performance level) evinces no real surprises as to their 2015 projection.

More specifically, Chase Headley (3.9 zWAR projection), Jacoby Ellsbury (3.8), Brian McCann (3.0), and Brett Gardner (2.5) are the above average players expected to carry much of the offense and defense in 2015. Below average players include Alex Rodriguez (1.2), Carlos Beltran (0.6), and Mark Teixeira (1.3).

As mentioned earlier, these are the older players on large contracts who carry injury and performance risk. Interestingly enough, Carlos Beltran’s number one comp is Tino Martinez. Didi Gregorius is about league average at 1.6 zWAR.

Yankees’ prospects also have projections. Notables include Rob Refsnyder (0.9 zWAR in 497 PA), Jose Pirela (1.1 in 555), Aaron Judge (0.8 in 566), and Gregory Bird (0.4 in 514).

Pitchers: Szymborski warns of the fact that Dellin Betances, a reliever, has the second highest win projection among pitchers. This reflects the fact that Betances is very good, but also that the rotation might not be. Masahiro Tanaka does receive the top ZiPS WAR projection at 3.4 and his top comp is the unsigned James Shields. The departed Hiroki Kuroda appears next at 2.2 so it is unfortunate he is no longer with the team. His top comp is Greg Maddux. Betances checks in next at 1.9 and then a collection of injury-riddled pitchers: Ivan Nova (1.5), Michael Pineda (1.4), and CC Sabathia (1.1).

The entire bullpen projects to around 4 WAR which is very good. Luis Severino, a top pitching prospect, projects at exactly 1.0 WAR if given 117 innings in 2015. Basically, the bullpen is elite and the starting rotation could be good if everyone stays healthy. A big “if”.

The ZiPS projections largely coincide with the general impression of the 2015 Yankees team. A few above average players, a few old, oft-injured ones, and a lack of immediate, high-upside help from the minors. This is combined with injury risk in the rotation and an elite bullpen.

A lot of the Yankees season will hinge on health. This is a pretty high variance team, where anything from 70 to 90 wins are reasonable outcomes.

Next: James Shields Would Make A Difference In The AL East

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