Bomber Bites: No Yankees Bluff On The Max Scherzer Front

As January comes to an end, the free agent market is scarce, yet Max Scherzer has just now found his new home for 2015 and beyond. After Scherzer reached a seven-year agreement with the Washington Nationals worth $210 million, it is apparent that the New York Yankees were not bluffing on their lack of an interest in Scherzer, and more importantly, $200 million contracts.

The Yankees have not spent $200 million on a player since the winter of 2007 when they brought back troubled slugger Alex Rodriguez on a ten-year, $275 million contract. Since the winter of 2009 when Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia were brought in for $180 million and $161 million, respectively, the Yankees have only given out two contracts north of $150 million, both coming last summer. They gave then-30 year old Jacoby Ellsbury $153 million over seven years, paying him until the age of 37, and then-25-year old Masahiro Tanaka $155 million over seven years until the age of 31. (Tanaka will turn 32 in the off-season).

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What does this mean for the Yankees going forward? After declining to offer homegrown superstar Robinson Cano a contract anything more than a seven-year deal worth $175 million, and refusing to get involved with any of the top free agents this year, it seems the Yankees are truly committed to short term contracts that won’t come back to bite.

Ten year deals are very risky, as you are often paying a player for several years of great performance, and several of decline. Would you have enjoyed seeing a 37-year old Scherzer tying up $30 million in 2021, for maybe three years of his dominance? It is easy to say yes thinking in the moment, especially when it is not your money spent. I am glad that Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman refused to pay this much for Scherzer, as although he is great and the team could certainly use him, it is not worth the price to pay down the line when the books start finally clearing up.

Tanaka’s contract contains an opt-out clause following the 2017 season when he will be 28, and Michael Pineda is set to become a free agent following the 2016 season, when he will be only 27. These two are cornerstones of the Yankees for the foreseeable future, and the team should be focused on retaining their two young aces. Assuming Tanaka opts out following the 2017, something I consider a given barring injury, the team only has five salary commitments. These five commitments will cost the team over $71 million, while Tanaka and Pineda both could pitch their way into new contracts worth over $20 million. This would put the Yankees at over $111 million for 7 players, with other pieces potentially sticking around with extensions.

Spending $30 million on one player simply is not good baseball, and it is likely the Yankees will continue to avoid these large contracts, unless it is for a young franchise-altering player, such as Bryce Harper after 2018 when he is only 25, or even possibly Mike Trout who will be 29 when he hits the open market in 2020. Another possible target could be Stephen Strasburg who will be 28 when he hits the open market following the 2016 season. Gambling on long-term, big money contracts for players over 30 rarely works, and with players re-signing before the mandatory six years before free agency, less stars are hitting the open market under 30 (even the stingy Marlins locked up Giancarlo Stanton before he completed his arbitration years). It is good to see the Yankees refraining from giving out bad contracts as they did in the past, and will be even better when these bad contracts no longer cripple the organization.

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