The Yankees Should Not Trade For A Nationals Starter

The Max Scherzer sweepstakes is finally over and the Washington Nationals won (at least in their opinion). With almost every big market team bowing out of the race to sign the former Cy Young winner, the Nationals signed him to a seven-year, $210 million dollar contract. While most think that contracts should decrease in value when suitors drop, the Nationals paid no heed.

More importantly than Scherzer, the Nationals are now listening to offers for Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg. Fans in Yankee-land are jumping off buildings in an effort to get the team to make an offer. Don’t do that just yet, it’s a trap. 

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Strasburg has settled into a strong pitching career after he was initially limited by innings and injuries. He eclipsed over 200 innings for the first time in 2014, ending at 215.0. He went 14-11 with a 3.14 ERA and a 119 ERA+. He had 242 strikeouts, a 1.12 WHIP, and was 9^th in Cy Young voting. In one of my favorite stats, he was tenth in baseball with 24 quality starts.

Strasburg has two years until he is a free agent and will make $7.4 million in 2015. While he is not on minimum contract status, that contract for what he brings to a team is still a strong value. Because of the years left on his contract, Strasburg will bring in a huge haul if a trade were to occur. We’re talking three top prospects level. He has a live arm and he is in a park that works well for him. Landing Strasburg in a deal would cripple the Yankees farm system and he may not fare as well in the small Bronx stadium.

In my opinion, the best pitcher for the Nationals in 2014 was Zimmermann. The 28-year old righty has started 32 games in each of the last three seasons. In 2014 he sported a 2.66 ERA, while going 14-5. His ERA+ was a career best at 141. His WHIP, home runs given up per nine innings, walks per nine innings, and strikeouts per nine innings were all career bests as well. Perhaps most importantly, he was also 10^th in all of baseball with 24 quality starts in two fewer starts than Strasburg. He was 5^th in Cy Young voting and will look to be even better in 2015.

Unfortunately, Zimmermann will be a free agent after the 2015 season. While this will drop his asking price a bit, the better bet would be to wait until 2016 and see how the market plays for him. Going after him now would require giving up some of the team’s best prospects for a one-year rental. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see him on the team. The Yankees should at least sniff at what it would take to get him on the team, but it won’t be cheap.

While trading for Zimmermann may be tempting, really tempting, the Yankees should still hold off. Trading for him may make getting under the luxury tax even harder in the coming years because the team will have no one to come up to the Bronx when the team starts letting the older veterans walk. The Yankees have done well in trading this off-season. Now is not the time to push their luck.