David Robertson And Bullpen Chaining

David Robertson had an excellent season for the Yankees in 2014, a year after the departure of legend Mariano Rivera. Yet again, the numbers were elite: 37.1% K rate, 8.9% BB rate, 0.98 HR/9. He’s another data point against the “closer mentality” nonsense. If you’re good in the 7^th or 8^th, you will be good in the 9^th. However, Robertson remains a free agent after declining the Yankees’ qualifying offer. He is looking for “Papelbon money” (4 years, $50 mil) and might get it as he is clearly the best reliever on the market who has experience closing (Andrew Miller does not), something teams value greatly. Giving 4 years at big AAV to a reliever is risky. These guys have short shelf lives as they pop up out of nowhere and become hurt or ineffective on a whim. Perhaps the only reliever I would give a 4 year contract to is Mariano Rivera, pretty much the only guy who was healthy and effective year after year after year. Robertson’s free agency provides another point of discussion: bullpen chaining.

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Bullpen chaining is the idea that each reliever (usually 7, sometimes 8) in the bullpen is tied to one another. Let’s say the closer (9^th inning guy) gets hurt. This sets off a chain of events where each reliever moves up a peg (setup man becomes closer, 7^th inning guy becomes 8^th inning guy, etc.) and a reliever from Triple-A is usually called up to be the new low-leverage guy. This Triple-A guy will not become the closer because he is likely not good enough yet so the team doesn’t take a huge hit from his addition as he won’t be pitching high leverage innings. However, the team may very well see a downgrade in the 6^th inning of a close game because that will now be pitched by the former low leverage (7^th man in the bullpen) guy as everyone moves up a rung. Fangraphs incorporates the idea of leverage index and bullpen chaining in their WAR calculation for relievers.

Here’s how the chaining would work if the Yankees lost Robertson this offseason and ran with Dellin Betances (closer), Adam Warren (8^th inning), Shawn Kelley (7^th inning), and Justin Wilson (6^th inning and spot against lefties in 7^th and 8^th) as the four main bullpen arms. Going from Robertson to Betances at closer is a lateral move. After that there will be some downgrade. Warren is a nice pitcher and would do fine in the 8^th. However, Betances would do much better in that high leverage role, pushing Warren to the 7th. Also, Kelley and Wilson would do okay shoring up the 6^th and 7^th innings in some way. However, Girardi wouldn’t be able to also use Warren to help in those innings because he is tied to the 8^th now. Wilson couldn’t be spotted against lefties as much if he is tied to a specific inning. The bullpen is simply better if Wilson and Kelley, both good pitchers, are pitching in the 5^th and 6^th instead of being stretched to the 7^th frequently. Finally, a player previously destined for Triple-A is now on the team in the absence of Robertson. No, he won’t pitch Robertson’s high leverage innings but they are still innings and there will be a downgrade. The bullpen becomes thinner with the departure of Robertson as each pitcher is given more responsibility to make up for his loss. This is the chaining effect that is unique to the reliever position in baseball.

The Yankees would do extremely well to resign Robertson. Not because Betances couldn’t adequately close (he would do just fine), but because the 8^th and even 7^th inning will take a hit. Resigning Robertson for the 9^th makes the 7^th and 8^th innings better as Betances can remain in that fireman role and Kelley and Warren can pitch the middle innings. Getting the compensatory draft pick if Robertson signs elsewhere would be nice and there is always a price at which one should walk away from signing a player, but resigning Robertson is crucial to maintaining the dynamite endgame the Yankees had last season.

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David Robertson and Bullpen Chaining

By Brendan Fitzgerald | Dec 1, 2014