Yankees’ ZiPS Projections
Team and player projections are starting to roll out as the offseason gets underway. This allows outsiders (fans) to glean an understanding of how their team compares to the competition. It also gives them a common language when talking about how a potential free agent signing would impact the team. “Player X would add Y projected wins to the team”. Dan Szymborski usually releases each team’s projection intermittently throughout the winter. However, he penned an article for ESPN (insider only) that relied on his ZiPS projection system which gives us a glimpse of how the Yankees project entering the offseason. He also shows how a few free agent acquisitions would change the calculus.
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The ZiPS system projects the Yankees’ pitchers to be worth 13.8 wins above replacement and the position players to be worth 16.6. Replacement level is set so that an exactly replacement level team would win about 48 games. Adding 13.8, 16.6, and 48 means the Yankees project as about a 78 win team. That’s a very grim outlook for a team that currently projects to have around a $190 million payroll with pre-arb and arb salaries included. That is the projection for what the Yankees look like right now, but, of course, they are expected to add some talent this offseason. Szymborski reveals what ZiPS projects for the win upgrade if 3 specific players are added. Starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy (1 win over innings he replaces), 3rd baseman Chase Headley (2 wins over Jose Pirela or Rob Refsynder as Martin Prado moves to 2nd base), and shortstop Hanley Ramirez (3 wins over Brendan Ryan) would altogether add 6 wins above the players that they would replace. That gets them to….84 wins, exactly the amount they had in 2014. Additionally, those players would push the payroll over $200 million again and the Yankees would likely be tapped out from adding a Max Scherzer or Jon Lester. This is not very encouraging.
The Yankees project as a very average team going into the offseason. Some free agent additions at shortstop, the starting rotation, and either third or second base should push them into the 80+ win range. However, They will need a lot of positive variance (healthy starting rotation, bounce backs from Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann, and good fortune in 1 run games, etc.) to get them into playoff contention range. A 3rd straight playoff-less season could really hurt the bottom line for the Steinbrenners especially when they can’t fall back on a Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter retirement tour.