Yankees’ Steamer Projections

The 2014 MLB season is winding down and the Yankees have been looking ahead to 2015 for several weeks due to missing the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Getting an early gauge on next season’s outlook is paramount for the team and for its fans. Projection systems are a good way to do this as they incorporate previous years’ performance and aging curve to project what a player will do in the future. As a reminder, projections are not predictions of what a player will do. They are simply a gauge of a player’s true talent level, a mean expected outcome with 50% of the actual possible outcomes coming on either side of the mean. Fangraphs has published the Steamer projections for the 2015 season as calculated by the Steamer Projections Blog. Here is a look at what they project for some notable Yankee position players:

*Note- each position player is scaled to 600 PA while catchers are scaled to 450. This is because it is difficult to project playing time and gives a better measure of differences in talent level than differences in opportunity. 

Catcher- Brian McCann (3.0 WAR) projects as an above average catcher after a down year. Steamer sees a .251/.317/.445 line for him in 2015. The average and slugging are in line with his career, but I think he has more OBP to give. 36 projected walks seems light. As always, McCann attains a lot of value through his defense and this projection doesn’t even include his very good pitch framing abilities. 

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Francisco Cervelli (1.3 WAR) projects as a below average catcher if given approximately a full season’s worth of playing time. Of course, Cervelli is the backup and has a tough time staying on the field anyway due to injury. Getting 450 plate appearances from Cervelli wouldn’t sink the Yankees, but would represent a marked downgrade from McCann. Interestingly enough, Gary Sanchez (1.9 WAR) and John Ryan Murphy (1.7 WAR) both project better than Cervelli. Of course, WAR is not nearly precise enough to say that a guy with 1.9 WAR was definitely better than a guy with 1.3 WAR.

First Base- The downward trend for Mark Teixeira (1.8 WAR) continues as the diminished projected power (22 doubles, 26 home runs) just doesn’t play that well at first base for a very slow base runner whose defensive value is also slipping. The 2009 Mark Teixeira is not coming back. Getting a legitimate backup first baseman (no, Brendan Ryan should not play first) is imperative for 2015.

Second Base- Martin Prado (2.1 WAR) is likely to play the position at least some of the time depending on who the Yankees target in free agency. He seems best-suited for a bench role on a championship caliber team, but this is an average everyday player and those are very valuable. He will continue to destroy left-handed pitching and move around the diamond to third base, left field, and right field. Stephen Drew (1.3 WAR), if they were to unexpectedly retain him, projects to put up a sub .300 OBP and some defensive value at short or second. Its unlikely he will be back.

Shortstop- Brendan Ryan (0.1 WAR) is basically a replacement level player. The glove is still elite, but still wouldn’t carry a projected .206/.268/.280 triple slash. For fun, Derek Jeter (0.4 WAR) projects as a .265/.315/.343 hitter with very bad defense and below average base running. Jeter’s bat with Ryan’s glove is a decent player. Either one in isolation is not. Shortstop is an area to address, but there are not many options with J.J. Hardy off the market and Asdrubal Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez grading out poorly defensively at the position.

Third Base- Another position of need as Chase Headley (3.9 WAR) is a free agent and Alex Rodriguez (0.5 WAR) missed an entire year. The projected WAR figure for Headley is the highest on the team among position players. .257/.343/.413 is very good in this era of Deadball II. He also provides very good defense at third and a switch-hitting ability that balances out the lineup.

Rodriguez projects as the worst defender on the team with very little bat (.234/.312/.370) to make it up. Of the players on this list, he probably has the largest range of possible outcomes as a generational talent coming off a missed year approaching 40 years of age. Ideally, Headley is retained at the right price to shore up this position.

Left Field- Steamer sees some regression of Brett Gardner‘s (2.6 WAR) power output with just a .134 ISO. He will still get on base (.328 projected OBP), run the bases well, and play elite defense in left. Chris Young (1.5 WAR) can be lumped in here. He won’t get 600 plate appearances if retained to be the 4th outfielder, but he is a perfect option for the roster. He hits right-handed which complements the lefties in center and left and has the ability to play center field well.

Center Field- Jacoby Ellsbury (3.5 WAR) projects to be a very good player again for the Yankees. He provides value mostly through his legs as an elite base stealer and defender at a premium defensive position. The bat is average to slightly above and that certainly plays with all of the other value he provides. Ellsbury is part of the championship core.

Right Field- Carlos Beltran (0.9 WAR) is slated to play the position, but there is uncertainty surrounding his arm strength and his range. His hitting fell off a cliff last year and Steamer sees a slight dead cat bounce: .261/.325/.440. That’s great for an up-the-middle position. Not so much for a right-fielder. Beltran is better suited to DH while the Yankees hope the bat gets resurrected after an injury-filled season. For what it’s worth, Ichiro Suzuki (0.3 WAR), unlikely to be retained, projects as a replacement level player as he approaches 3,000 MLB hits.

These Steamer projections further illustrate that the Yankees are a few position player pieces away from contention. They don’t project to get much from 1st base, right field, or shortstop and 3rd base could be a black hole if Headley is not retained. Spending money (again) in free agency to fill these deficiencies seems likely to avoid a 3rd consecutive year without October baseball in the Bronx.